CINCINNATI — Low voter turnout could create an unpredictable race for Cincinnati City Council, especially with 26 candidates running for nine seats.
“I think very, very low turnout creates a volatility,” said Xavier University political science professor Mack Mariani. “It makes it easier for a relatively small group of angry people to make a difference.”
Mariani predicted a slightly lower turnout than the last mayoral race in 2021, when 25% of overall Cincinnati voters cast ballots. That's when Aftab Pureval defeated fellow Democrat David Mann to become mayor with 66% of the vote.
This year, Mariani predicted a similarly low turnout but said it would be higher than it would have been if not for the summer of violent crime in downtown and Over-the-Rhine.
“You have to worry a little bit about democracy if even given the summer we’ve had … if those sorts of things don’t bring us out to vote, then you wonder what could,” Mariani said. “I think people are paying more attention. I’m paying more attention than I would have otherwise.”
University of Cincinnati political science professor David Niven predicted a "pretty typical off-year election."
“Which is that not many folks are going to be deciding the future direction of Cincinnati,” Niven said.
Watch: Experts weigh in with their predictions for the Cincinnati City Council race
Low turnout generally helps incumbents. They have an advantage in figuring out who is most likely to vote, Niven said.
“Even in a small turnout election when there is volatility, the Democrats are still going to get their vote out, their core vote,” Mariani said. “Just making sure to hit their core group with enough mail, phone calls, and door knocks to make sure they know it is important to show up. It matters in the margin.”
The challenge this year is the crowded field of candidates for the city council, including the revival of the Charter Committee, which had been dormant for several years.
“The incumbents and the endorsed Democrats are up against confusion and voter fatigue,” Niven said. “For Democrats, victory is all nine seats. Victory for Republicans is to get back on council. I think the Charter Committee would be over the moon to get a candidate through, to be relevant again.”
Who will win a council seat?
Democrats currently control all nine Cincinnati City Council seats. Mariani and Niven both predicted that the party could lose one or two seats this election.
"I still think you’re probably likely to see a 7-2. The best case scenario is probably a 6-3 for the non-Democrats, but I’m going to guess that it's 7-2 or 8-1," Mariani said.
The candidates who will run the strongest have experience and know how to run a campaign. They have good name recognition and community support, and the ability to raise money, Mariani said.
Niven agreed, “A lot of these candidates have previous council experience or have a bit of a Cincinnati name. It adds a little bit of intrigue to the story … there is definitely a different dynamic to this council race than there was, for example, two years ago.”
Mariani predicted that non-Democratic candidates Christopher Smitherman, Liz Keating, Laketa Cole and Steve Goodin have the best chance of winning seats because they are past council members.
“It’s probably one of the hardest races literally in the nation, to get your name out there … when you’re up against dozens of other candidates and you’re up against the fact that voter fatigue means some of these folks are not actually going to cast nine votes,” Niven said. “The average voter taps out at around seven votes. They give up those last two votes.”
The Hamilton County Democratic Party endorsed a slate of eight current council members who are running for re-election, plus newcomer Ryan James. Democrat Victoria Parks is not seeking re-election.
“What the slate ensures is … nine Democrats who are all in a position to win. Not nine who are going to win, but nine who are in a position to win,” Niven said. “It’s still going to be a long night for the seventh, eighth, and ninth candidates on that list who are worrying, ‘Is there somebody gaining ground on me?’”
Niven and Mariani agreed that one of the most vulnerable Democratic council members running for reelection is Evan Nolan.
Niven saw Seth Walsh as potentially vulnerable. Mariani saw newcomer Ryan James, who won the party’s endorsement as the second most susceptible, followed by council members Anna Albi, as the third, and Jeff Cramerding as the fourth. Still, he doesn’t predict that Democrats will ultimately lose that many seats.
Those weaker Democrats aren’t just looking at Republicans and Charter candidates as competition but also looking at each other, Niven said.
Will Mayor Pureval win a second term?
WCPO asked why Republicans have virtually no chance to win the mayor’s race.
“The bottom line is this is a blue city, and so if you are giving voters a one-on-one choice, the Democrat candidate has the overwhelming odds in their favor,” Niven said. “The council has a different dynamic just because it’s such a hard vote to give folks nine different votes to cast … the opportunity for Republicans is much stronger on the council than it is for mayor just because of that voter fatigue.”
Niven predicted that the best-case scenario for Republican mayoral candidate Cory Bowman is to win roughly one-third of the vote, similar to how Democrat David Mann performed in the 2021 mayoral race.
“That’s still going to take some doing. That’s going to be a heavy lift for somebody who has no established Cincinnati political standing, who has no capacity to appeal to folks outside of his own party and who has really been running a pretty restrained part-time campaign,” Niven said.
Mariani pointed to Vice President Kamala Harris's win in Cincinnati with 77% of the vote in the 2024 presidential race.
“That’s a big deficit for Republicans to make up,” said Mariani, who noted that even independent voters in the city lean progressive.
What will the early vote show?
Soon after the polls close at 7:30 p.m. in Ohio, the Hamilton County Board of Elections releases the preliminary unofficial vote totals from early in-person and mail-in absentee ballots.
“What the early vote tells you is if ... anybody impinging on the Democrats for the top nine in the council, then it’s going to be a really interesting night,” Niven said. “If the Democrats are doing great in the early voting, then you have to wait and see how well they keep that up on Election Day. But if there’s any weakness in that early voting on the Democratic side, that’s where this race starts to look interesting.”
Bowman is expected to do best with voters who live on the extreme east and west fringes of the city, such as California and Sayler Park. If he performs well in swing neighborhoods such as Madisonville, Riverside or West Price Hill, then Bowman will likely outperform expectations, Niven said.
Those swing neighborhoods are also where a promising Republican or Charter Party candidate could score a breakthrough and win a council seat, Niven said.
What happens if you don’t like the election results?
People vote with their feet, Mariani said.
“When Republicans don’t like the government they’re getting in the city, they don’t like the policies, they just move. They move out to the suburbs. Move to Butler County or Mason,” Mariani said. “People are moving into the city, and it’s the same thing; they’re voting with their feet as well. They like the policies; they like the fact that the city is progressive.”
Mariani predicted little crossover vote among Democrats in Cincinnati.
While Bowman’s name recognition as the half-brother of Vice President J.D. Vance helped with fundraising and media attention, on the flip side, he’s tied to what many Cincinnati voters consider to be an unpopular administration.
“I think it’s very unlikely that you’d see that Bowman win the race,” Mariani said. “But I think he’s handled the race pretty well, considering that he’s taken the issues in front of him and run with it a bit, put some pressure on the Democratic establishment here to respond. That’s probably healthy for the city to have a bit of competition.”
