CINCINNATI — Crime and public safety are some of the biggest issues driving Cincinnati voters to the polls this fall.
With the election less than two weeks away, the WCPO 9 I-Team asked local political experts whether city officials placing Cincinnati Police Chief Teresa Theetge on administrative leave could impact the election.
“Turmoil surrounding the police chief is never good for incumbents. Even if they are not empowered to act, they are ultimately held accountable,” said University of Cincinnati political science professor David Niven.
WATCH: We look into how public safety concerns could impact the election
Xavier University political science professor Mack Mariani said he assumed the crime issue is already baked into voter preferences when it comes to the city council and the mayoral races.
“If there was a perception that things were moving in the right direction, that would have helped the mayor and Democrats a bit,” Mariani said. “As it stands, perceptions probably haven't changed much. The fact that things haven't gotten much better and high-profile crimes are still happening with some regularity may hurt the Democrats at the very bottom of the city council race, but not enough for Democrats to lose the majority.”
But it could make it easier for Democrats to lose one or two of their nine council seats to Charter candidates or Republicans, Niven and Mariani both said.
Summer violence and downtown crime “absolutely” prompted Cincinnati residents to pay more attention to city government and the election, Mariani said.
“It was sort of an issue that was bubbling up right. You remember they put the fences around The Banks,” Mariani said. “That’s not a sign that things are going well right, that’s a sign that you don’t really feel like you have control of the situation.”
A downtown brawl in July captured national attention. A video of the attack went viral, drawing criticism from billionaire Elon Musk, Vice President J.D. Vance, and prompting town halls and press conferences from Sen. Bernie Moreno and gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.
“I think public safety has been on center stage even if it’s been cartoonishly portrayed … It’s still what is at the front of the headlines and the front of people’s consciousness,” Niven said.
Crime has been a centerpiece of Cory Bowman’s campaign against Mayor Aftab Pureval.
“Keep our citizens safe,” a Bowman volunteer chanted outside the Hamilton County Board of Elections on Monday. “We want to walk freely and safely in our own communities again.”
During the Oct. 9 mayoral debate at Xavier University, Bowman said police officers feel that the city is unsafe and that crime statistics showing otherwise are false.
“Without question, this council and I have made crime the top priority in our community,” Pureval said at the Xavier debate. “While I believe that we need to continue to prioritize public safety, I understand, and I hear from Cincinnati residents that they don’t feel safe, particularly downtown.
“On the one hand, they can be criticized for ‘why did we let crime get to this point,’ on the other hand, they did respond to it,” Mariani said. “Voters have a decision to make when it comes to whether or not the council was very good in response, or whether they were not so good in anticipating those problems ahead of time.”
Another big issue for voters is development, especially after the controversial Hyde Park project.
In September, council reversed its unpopular decision from months prior to approve a zoning change for a development that thousands of Hyde Park residents vehemently opposed.
“They wanted them to change their minds, and they did,” Mariani said. “You could look at that as a purely tactical campaign-related decision or … maybe they said, ‘wow, this is a lot of people and they really are passionate about this and maybe we ought to take a second look.’”
Instead of judging Cincinnati City Council incumbents independently, experts anticipate that voters will grade them as a group since all are Democrats who ran together two years ago.
“If you’re going to put yourself on a slate, you’re accepting mutual responsibility,” Niven said. “You kind of stand together on issues and invite voters to give it an up or down to the entire group.”
How the city approaches future development is also a key issue for voters. Will council members allow developers to lead future projects, or will they listen more to residents’ opinions?
“Certainly, the overall amount of housing is an absolutely critical issue for a city that is finally growing again after 60 to 70 years of steady decline,” Niven said. “That’s a core issue. If you want to maintain the direction, it has to involve additional housing.”
Another big issue is how to spend taxpayer money, and whether to prioritize infrastructure, such as fixing streets and potholes, or human services funding and medical debt relief for city residents.
“That really goes back to voters. If they want somebody who is looking at things differently, fundamentally, than this group, elect a Republican, elect a Charter candidate, elect one of the numerous unaffiliated candidates,” Niven said. “And you’re going to get somebody who is coming at this from a different perspective.”
For voters, the big question is whether the city is moving in the right direction.
“Are they better off than they were two years ago, is the question voters might have to ask themselves,” Mariani said.
If voters are unhappy with the election results, they can always move, and many do.
"People vote with their feet. When Republicans don’t like the government they’re getting in the city ... they move out to the suburbs," said Mariani. "People are moving into the city, and the same thing, they’re voting with their feet as well. They like the policies, they like the fact that the city is progressive."
