Tropical Storm Cindy churns off the Gulf Coast today and will make landfall along the Texas-Louisiana coast Thursday morning.
Current forecasts project this storm to stay below hurricane status, but 60 mph sustained winds are still expected, along with flooding rains.
With time, this same system will eventually move up through the Tennessee and Ohio valleys, transporting in tropical moisture and a very heavy rainfall potential as we end the work week. We'll even see the threat for flash flooding in the Tri-State. The map below shows you the area of low pressure, which was once Cindy, will pass just south of the Cincinnati viewing area.
The big story -- as this moves inland and winds start to die down -- will turn to the amount of rainfall as the storm moves north/northeast. A lot of the weather models today are pointing at the heaviest swath of rain across portions of Kentucky and Tennessee for Friday.
But from the discussions I've seen, confidence is LOW regarding exactly how much rain will fall in the Tri-State. If the models are onto anything consistent this morning, we could be looking at 1 inch or more of rain Friday. Rainfall totals will taper off to the north. If this rain falls quick enough, this could lead to flash flooding. This is something we'll monitor closely in the days ahead.
What's interesting to note about the path of Cindy is that the storm's center never truly passes through the Tri-State. It's the transportation of tropical moisture well ahead of the storm that will help put an abundance of moisture in the air for us.
A cold front dropping in from the north will trigger shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the day Friday. If the tropical moisture of Cindy weren't available, this rainfall wouldn't have been forecasted to be as heavy or as prolonged.
The biggest takeaway from this system: It's going to rain Friday. You should rethink outdoor plans, especially those that depend on a dry forecast. There is a high likelihood that it's going to rain for more than a few hours.
Good news, the latest weather models are suggesting an earlier departure of this system. I only have rain in the forecast for early Saturday morning, but the rest of the day now looks dry. This is potentially great news for those of you heading up to Dayton this weekend for the air show.