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A snow day bust? Why so many didn't get snow overnight

Here's a breakdown of why the Tri-State area didn't see the forecast snowfall overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

By: Jennifer Ketchmark

Posted at 8:24 AM, Jan 25, 2023

and last updated 2023-01-25 13:23:43-05

CINCINNATI — There is value in honesty, transparency and in-depth analysis after it snows. For many of you that live east and south of Cincinnati, you are wondering, where's the snow that was forecast?

This weather system was one of those setups where we were on the edge of getting snow or rainfall. It's a forecaster's nightmare because small adjustments in the track of the low pressure system can make or break us getting snowfall. And too often, this is the case with winter systems in the Tri-State.

We had high confidence yesterday that our northwestern spots would get measurable snowfall and have lingering issues on the roads for the morning drive. That is exactly what we woke up to this morning. Check out some of the snow totals:

4.0" Milan, IN
4.0" Sumnan, IN
3.0" Oxford, OH
3.0" Somerville, OH
2.5" Batesville, IN
2.0" Liberty, IN
1.9" Groesbeck, OH
1.5" Mason, OH
1.2" Hamilton, OH
1.0" Harveysburg, OH
1.0" Maineville, OH
0.9" Wilmington, OH
0.8" Alpine, IN
0.5" Loveland, OH

This is a look at the snow estimates from radar overnight. Where we got 1/2" or less, it has all melted and roads are wet. Even where we got 1" of snow, very little is left as it has melted too. The worst travel will be into the purple colors on the map. @wcpo #cincywx pic.twitter.com/ki8veQEoZ9
— Jennifer Ketchmark (@KetchmarkWCPO) January 25, 2023

But what happened to the east and south? Warm air. And we knew this was a possibility. Check out this snippet of the forecast from Tuesday morning talking about this very possibility:

Warm air issue

And this isn't me trying to say "gotcha" or anything to that effect. We know it's frustrating when we call for 2-3" inches of snowfall and you get nothing. Schools cancelled, schools delayed, people adjusted their plans or cancelled travel.

This system was definitely one of those that came down to a 30-50 mile shift in the track of the low pressure system. And when you think about scale of these weather systems, it's a really small change. But when that shift is right over your town, it can make or break a snowy day and make it a rainy day instead.

Check out the forecast looking ahead here.

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