COLUMBUS, Ohio — Early Ohio numbers show that Democrats are coming out to vote even more than they did in 2024 and 2022, outperforming Republicans.
Hundreds of thousands of Ohioans have already cast their ballots.
Data from the Secretary of State’s Office breaks down early voting by registered party, and shows that not only are Democrats outperforming Republicans across the state, but they are, in some cases, nearly quadrupling their numbers from Ohio's last gubernatorial race in 2022.
"Democrats right now are more enthusiastic about voting," state Sen. Bill DeMora (D-Columbus) said.
As of Tuesday, nearly 230,000 votes have been cast. Democrats are at about 95,000, unaffiliated voters have 67,000, Republicans are nearing 64,000 and minor parties are at just more than 400.
In Hamilton County, Democrats have returned more than 7,800 ballots so far compared to about 2,000 in 2022, nearly a 300% increase.
But the most stark difference is from 2024, when President Donald Trump dominated in Ohio.
At this exact point in the race in 2024, 36% of early voters were Republicans, 26% Democrats and the remaining were unaffiliated or other. In 2026, 41% of early voters are Democrats, and only 28% are Republicans.
Democrats are also showing up in red counties. In the 81 counties that Trump carried in 2024, Democrats were about 20% of the early voters a week in. Republicans were 44%. This year, both Democrats and Republicans are showing up at 39%.
"Early voting, in the end, really tells you nothing," Republican strategist Bob Clegg said with a laugh.
Democrats shouldn’t get too confident with these numbers, he said.
"Our voters wait longer to vote, and the more motivated Democrats are, the more they vote earlier," he said.
Republicans do have a turnout problem, Clegg said, and referenced how Trump has visited Ohio twice in 10 days.
"We won everything," Clegg said. "Anytime you win everything, you got a turnout problem. The Democrats had it in 2022."
The crowds have not been very full, he acknowledged.
"He's been around here a lot," he said. "At what point do you say, 'Oh, OK.'"
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Clegg expects very close races, as former President Barack Obama will be making his way to Cleveland to rally for candidate for U.S. Senate Sherrod Brown and candidate for governor Dr. Amy Acton in late October.
“Sherrod Brown has always fought for working people: Standing up to big corporations, standing up to Wall Street, standing up to pharmaceutical companies, because Sherrod believes in the promise of America,” Obama said in a prepared statement.
Acton got her own shout-out video from the former president.
Some Democrats, and even Republicans, think GOP voters may stay home.
"They've seen the destructiveness of this second term of President Trump and have moved away from him," state Rep. Eric Synenberg (D-Beachwood) said.
Republicans in Ohio historically show up in droves on the actual election day, so these races will likely come down to the final minutes of November 3.
Follow Statehouse and Columbus bureau reporter Morgan Trau on X, Instagram and Facebook. Email her at Morgan.Trau@wews.com.
