CINCINNATI — President Trump is heading to Vandalia this weekend to campaign for Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who is in a tightly contested race against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat.
The rally takes place this Saturday at the Butler-Vandalia Student Activity Center, 10 miles north of Dayton. Doors open at 4 p.m., with the event set to begin at 5:30 p.m. Trump is also expected to support Republican Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy during his visit. Ramaswamy faces Democratic candidate for Ohio governor Amy Acton this November.
The latest polling shows Brown with a slight lead, though by slim margins, University of Cincinnati Political Science Professor David Niven said.
WATCH: What to know ahead of Trump's visit to the Tri-State this weekend
"We've had a couple of polls that have been good for Sherrod Brown. In one poll, he was just over 50 percent in the lead. The other poll, he was just under 50 percent in the lead," Niven said. "The fundamentals look really good for him in terms of an enthusiasm gap that favors Democratic voters."
Niven says having Trump campaign for Husted may hurt more than help, given the president's low approval rating.
"For Jon Husted, he doesn't need to just hold ground. He needs to grow his space. He needs to grow supporters. It's really hard to see how this helps him with that," Niven said.
We asked Niven why leaders may have chosen Vandalia for the event. He said it's more a logistical choice than a strategic one.
"Vandalia is really just about ease. You know, they have you know a track record of being able to get in and out, get a big crowd together," Niven said. "I don't think it's so much about hitting a particular media market or that kind of like political strategy.
Both parties are watching the race closely as November approaches, with control of Congress at stake. As of late September, Ohio's Senate race leads all midterm election contests in ad spending, at nearly $200 million, according to The Washington Post.
Ohio's 2024 Senate race, in which Sen. Bernie Moreno ousted Brown, became the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history.
Niven said the enormous spending that 2024 cycle likely canceled itself out, with the outcome ultimately determined by the broader political climate favoring Republicans.
"Although Ohio's been voting reliably Republican, Sherrod Brown, over his political history, has shown that he can succeed even when the state is voting red," he said. "The mood of the nation and the mood of Ohio more favors Democrats in this particular cycle. So it's shaping up to be very competitive."
Niven says Ohio's Senate race fits a broader national trend favoring Democrats this cycle.
"It's shaping up to be a good election for Democrats across the country. They are ahead in competitive states, and they're competitive in states that are really, really difficult for Democrats, like Texas," Niven said.
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