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Tim Ryan has raised tens of millions more than JD Vance: How does that impact his chance of winning?

Non-partisan group reports campaign spending will be $16.7 billion nationwide
Tim Ryan JD Vance
Posted at 10:56 PM, Nov 07, 2022
and last updated 2022-11-08 00:10:05-05

CINCINNATI — The non-partisan group Open Secrets is reporting the most expensive midterm election ever. Political candidates and political action committees are spending an estimated $16.7 billion across the country.

"Having money doesn't mean you're going to win, but not having money does mean you're going to lose," said David Niven, University of Cincinnati political scientist.

The strategy of every campaign is to get their candidate's message to the voter. Niven said having the most money doesn't guarantee a victory.

"It's simply a question of did you raise enough money to help build awareness of your campaign?" Niven. "Did you raise enough money to be able to staff a full-fledged campaign?"

For instance, the latest Federal Election Commission data shows Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Tim Ryan has raised $48,111,529.82 and spent $45,324,651.47. Ryan is currently ranked seventh in fundraising when it comes to candidates running for U.S. Senate.

Tim Ryan campaign fundraising
Tim Ryan campaign spending

However, Ryan's opponent, Republican J.D. Vance has raised a fraction of that amount at $12,731,999.42 and spent $9,746,051.96 — and he's the one who is ahead in polling by FiveThirtyEight. Niven said these numbers come with an asterisk.

JD Vance campaign fundraising

"JD Vance has benefited from more anonymous outside spending than Tim Ryan, so when you add up collectively that's been spent for and against the candidates, Vance is ahead, but he's only ahead based on the mega dollars of anonymous participants and those who choose to be anonymous if they want to be," Niven said.

WCPO asked Niven about the possibilities of campaign ads running too much to the point where voters get turned away from a candidate.

"Well, there is a very real risk that you've seen so much of the candidates that it's not just any one candidate or any one campaign but all of them put together you've heard so many messages coming at you, (A) they start to blend together and (B) they start running for the mute button," said Niven.

Which candidate has raised the most money? Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock is outraising all U.S. Senate candidates as the latest data shows his campaign has received more than $123 million.

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