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What's our chance for a white Christmas?

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Posted at 9:32 AM, Dec 02, 2015
and last updated 2015-12-02 09:32:16-05

Whether you are a child or a kid at heart, we are dreaming of a white Christmas here in the Tri-State. But how good is our chance this year?

We've seen several months in a row where temperatures have been above normal. This is something you probably don't want to hear if you want snow on the ground for Christmas morning; because as you'd imagine, warmer air and warmer trends will lessen our chance for snow on Christmas.

Check out this article from national Scripps meteorologist Jason Meyers for a better look at the warmer temperatures across the nation.

But let's talk numbers and be realistic here. In any given year, the Tri-state has a 11-25 percent chance of seeing a white Christmas. By definition a white Christmas has 1 inch of snow on the ground and 1 inch of snow falls on that day.

That 11-25 percent chance just doesn't sound promising.

Probability of a white Christmas

So I dug through the records to see how long it's been since we saw a white Christmas in Cincinnati. While we've seen flurries or trace amounts of snow in 2012, 2013 and 2014, you have to go back to 2010 to find snow on Christmas. That year, 1.1 inches of snow fell, making it our last "white Christmas" on the books.

Is the chance completely out. Of course not. But with the recent warm trends, I wouldn't bank on mother nature delivering snow for Christmas morning.