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Weekend may have 1st snow flurries of the season

Posted at 10:26 AM, Nov 19, 2015
and last updated 2015-11-19 10:26:39-05

CINCINNATI -- If you've been watching our forecast this week, you know we've been talking about the potential to finally see snow flakes here in the Tri-State.  

Our team has been monitoring the snow chance closely and here's what we are seeing today. 

Precipitation will likely move into the Tri-State on Saturday afternoon and evening as a quick moving clipper system passes through the Ohio Valley.  Temperatures are expected to top out at 47°F so this will definitely start as rain. 

The potential of snow mixing in all comes down to timing. I'm going to show you two weather models here and break down why this is so critical.  First, pictured below is the NAM weather model. It shows that the leading edge of the precipitation would be rain and then transition to a rain/snow mix as we get later into the evening. The mix is the pink color.

Meaurable snow possible to the north

On the flip side, we still have to consider a faster passage of this system. You can see this below in the RPM weather model. If the rain moves through a little earlier on Saturday, it would support just rain because it would be too warm.

Checking out the weather models

So which way is it leaning toward? Out of the big 4 weather models that we look at, it looks like this will pass mainly after 4 p.m. This would mean that a line of rain showers will move through the area but as we head into the evening hours, we could see snow mixing in on the back side of this rain as the temperature falls.  

The rain/snow mix wouldn't last very long and it wouldn't stick. Pavement temperatures and ground temperatures are too warm to support that and this won't be consistent enough to stick.

But we, as the 9 First Warning Weather team, continue to watch it. Regardless of what happens with this clipper passage, Sunday will feel like winter with a high of 35°F!

For the latest on all things meteorology, follow Jennifer Ketchmark on Twitter and for the full forecast, click here.