Beware of ice threat for Friday and Saturday

Here's where we're most likely to see ice
Posted at 11:10 AM, Jan 12, 2017
and last updated 2017-01-12 11:10:09-05

Let's get down to business and talk about Friday night and Saturday. Freezing rain is in the forecast and this article will cover everything from timing, who has the best chance and the difficulty of this forecast. 

FRIDAY EVENING: Showers will move up from the south on Friday evening. The earlier this arrives, the more likely it starts as rain since temperatures will be above freezing. But as we get past 7-9 p.m., we will start to see temperatures at or near freezing, especially north of the Ohio River. This would start the freezing rain north of the river more than likely.

The big question: How cold will Northern Kentucky get in this time? Temperatures in NKY will be within 1-2 degrees of freezing Friday evening, so even a minor fluctuation down in temperature will result in ice south of the Ohio River. This is something we are still monitoring.

Rain moves up from the south on Friday evening.

Check out this next picture as it shows you how close we are to freezing on Friday evening as the rain arrives. It really comes down to how quickly the rain comes and what the temperature is. It could make the difference between light rain or a sheet of ice. 

Here's the temperature dilemma

SATURDAY MORNING: Waves of rain continue overnight and through Saturday morning. It's during this time that we have a better chance of ice north of the Ohio River and rain south of the river. This rain area could also include much of Greater Cincinnati. By noon, temperatures will improve above freezing and we should start to see less ice. But it could take a bit for travel conditions to improve everywhere.

Precip on Saturday shows more ice to the north

BEST CHANCE: Realistically, it comes down to forecast confidence. I would not call this a final forecast or a guarantee for ice, especially south of Cincinnati. If you want to see who probably has the best chance for ice, that map is below. North of Cincinnati has that better chance because this is where our weather models have been the most consistent run after run.

The big question mark in the forecast is Friday evening and where your temperature will land. One to 3 degrees will make the difference between wet roads in northern Kentucky and Cincinnati or ice. It's that small of a detail. Keep coming back for more information, we are monitoring this closely and working together to get you the best forecast possible. 

Trend has been a greater ice chance to the north