COLUMBUS, Ohio — Ohio Democrats are hoping to flip at least six seats to break the Republican supermajority, changing the balance of power within the Statehouse.
Some of the most important races are in the legislature, as Democrats gear up for a competitive general election.
"2026 is as good a year as it might be for Democrats because of the level of frustration with Republican leadership," House Minority Leader Dani Isaacsohn (D-Cincinnati) said.
Democrats are looking at 10 GOP-held seats, but Isaacsohn said they are mainly focusing on eight.
Currently, there are 65 Republicans and 34 Democrats in the House. Having 60 seats makes a supermajority.
If they can flip six, the supermajority is broken, and the caucus would no longer be able to override a governor's veto, which requires 60 votes.
"We need a governor who can govern when Dr. (Amy) Acton wins in November," Isaacsohn said, referencing the gubernatorial race between Acton, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Libertarian Don Kissick.
If the Democrats get 40 seats, Republicans would also no longer be able to put a resolution on the ballot without bipartisan support.
Of the targeted eight seats, five are in Northeast Ohio, two in the Dayton area and one near Columbus.
The top eight
District 17: Southwestern Cuyahoga County, including Strongsville, North Royalton and Berea
Incumbent Mike Dovilla (R-Berea) will face off against Democrat Megan Coy.
District 31: Northern and western Summit County, including Cuyahoga Falls, Copley and Barberton
This is the seat of state Rep. Bill Roemer (R-Richfield), who is term-limited. Democrat J. Noah Spinner will race against Republican Mike Kahoe.
District 35: Parts of Geauga, Portage and Summit Counties, including Twinsburg, Aurora and Streetsboro
This is the seat of state Rep. Steve Demetriou (R-Bainbridge Township), who is running for the state Senate.
Democrat Samantha Salamon will face off against Republican Vik Sandhu.
District 36: Eastern Montgomery County, including Kettering and parts of downtown Dayton
Incumbent Andrea White (R-Kettering) is being challenged by Democrat Rose Lounsbury.
District 39: Northern Montgomery County, including Northridge, Huber Heights and Englewood
This is the seat of state Rep. Phil Plummer (R-Dayton), who is running for the state Senate.
Democrat Daquan Neal is running against Republican Mark Campbell.
District 49: Central Stark County, including Canton, Avondale and McDonaldsville
Incumbent Jim Thomas (R-Jackson Township) will race against Democrat Krista Allison.
District 52: Northeastern Lorain County, including North Ridgeville, Elyria and Avon
This is the seat of state Rep. Gayle Manning (R-Avon), who is running for the state Senate.
Her son, state Sen. Nathan Manning (R-North Ridgeville), was supposed to run for this seat but dropped out as he was appointed to the Ninth District Court of Appeals.
RELATED: Ohio Sen. Nathan Manning appointed to court; what happens to his House race?
Democrat Mike Baker will run against whomever the Lorain County Republicans decide.
District 60: Western Delaware County, including Delaware, Powell and Lewis Center
Incumbent Brian Lorenz (R-Powell) will face off against Democrat Shelby Kimball.
The additional two
If it is a really good year, Isaacsohn said, they are monitoring a Cincinnati-area seat and one outside Toledo.
District 29: Western Hamilton County, including Harrison, Mount Healthy and New Baltimore
Incumbent Cindy Abrams (R-Harrison) is being challenged by Democrat Jonathan Bradner.
District 44: Parts of Lucas, Ottawa and Wood counties, including Sylvania, Monclova and Whitehouse
This is the seat of state Rep. Josh Williams (R-Sylvania Township), who ran in the GOP primary for Congress but lost.
Democrat David J. Fournier will race against Republican Edward L. Schimmel and independent Lyndsey Stough.
Strategy
The Democrats made their calculations by looking at past competitive races, Isaacsohn said, as well as demographic changes.
"There are eight districts in 2024 that Sherrod Brown got a majority of the vote," Isaacsohn said.
House Districts 31, 35, 39 and 52 of the top eight seats they want are open, with their incumbents not running. Of the 10, five are open.
Districts 31, 35, 36 and 49 were won during a Republican wave by only about 3,000 votes or about 5%.
Their biggest focuses? Districts 31 and 35 in Summit County, which have been competitive races for the last few cycles.
Those seats are smart to target, Republican strategist Bob Clegg said, but not likely to flip.
"Democrats don't have a lot of seats that are doable," Clegg said.
Democrats will likely perform better this year, he said, but he doesn’t think they can break the supermajority since the Republicans were in charge of redistricting.
"We did a good job doing our lines, and we don't have to worry," he said.
Clegg believes that the ones that could most easily be flipped are Districts 17 in Strongsville, 52 in Lorain, 44 in Toledo and 60 outside Columbus. But he doesn’t think Dems will have the resources.
"They can expand their targets, but the question is, 'Are they going to have the money to be really, truly engaged in some of these districts?'" he asked.
Isaacsohn said they are leaning into the messaging of affordability, and he says it's resonating with voters.
"Bring more balance to a state that is in desperate need of a government that actually starts delivering for people," he said.
Now, for the annoying adage, these races will really depend on turnout.
Midterm elections in Ohio do not have as large a turnout as they do in presidential years, but for the past five decades, it's typically been about 50% of eligible voters.
Follow WEWS statehouse reporter Morgan Trau on Twitter and Facebook.
