It's finally cooler out this morning, but let's not be short-sighted. Like a clingy ex, the heat will return. Highs by the weekend will return to the upper 80s.
So what's going on?
First of all, the Climate Prediction Center shows that we should expect "above average" temperatures over the next three months. While we will get the occasional cooler day here and there, the temperature will end up warmer than it should be through November on average.
This often leads to a discussion of El Nino or La Nina, but neither are leading to the warmer stretch of weather. We are currently in a "neutral" phase.
This heat is part of a trend that isn't just exclusive to 2019. If you look at the average temperature in fall dating from the 1970s to last fall, the average temperature in Cincinnati has been rising. An average of 1.4 degrees might not seem like a lot for Cincinnati, but it is noteworthy.
Nationally, the average fall temperature has actually increased 2.5 degrees over the last 50 years.
According to Climate Central, the seven highest increases have all come in the western U.S. — led by Reno, Nevada (7.7°F), Las Vegas, Nevada (5.9°F), and El Paso, Texas (5.4°F). Their stats are pulled directly from National Weather Service data from cities across the country.
It's also important when discussing the temperature trends and climate change that we acknowledge where this data comes from and the methodology behind it. Climate change is a subject that can evoke strong reactions, so it's imperative that we show our work and sources.
First of all, Climate Central is an organization that looks at temperature and precipitation trends across the U.S. and specifically provides numbers for Cincinnati. This data is then double checked by a meteorologist on our staff. Their data is the graph you are seeing above with the temperature trend in this story.
With each report, Climate Central provides the source for all their data. Here is a look at the fall warming trend data:
- METHODOLOGY: The national trend in fall temperatures are from NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance for September through November. Individual city temperature trends are calculated using data from the Applied Climate Information System for the same period. Displayed trend lines on city analyses are based on a mathematical linear regression.
- Climate Central's local analyses include 244 stations. However, for data summaries based on linear trends, only 242 stations are included because of large data gaps in St. Johnsbury, Vermont, and Wheeling, West Virginia.