CINCINNATI — President Donald Trump's proposal for $2,000 tariff rebate checks took a significant step forward in recent days when he announced the plan on Truth Social, marking the most serious attempt yet to return tariff revenue directly to taxpayers.
In his social media post, Trump said "a dividend of at least $2,000 a person, not including high-income people, will be paid to everyone" using billions of dollars collected from tariffs.
However, you may not want to start planning your holiday shopping with it yet, because several obstacles remain before Americans can see these checks in their mailboxes.
WATCH: What's the chance of getting a $2,000 tariff rebate check?
Trump's own Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent said rebates could "come in lots of forms," not necessarily direct checks to taxpayers. He said no direct proposal has yet been made.
This suggests the administration may explore alternatives to the direct payment model used during the COVID-19 pandemic, where taxpayers received stimulus checks directly into their bank accounts.
However, like the COVID-era stimulus checks, any tariff rebate program would likely require Congressional approval. This adds a layer of complexity to the proposal's implementation timeline.
The concept isn't entirely new. Over the summer, Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri proposed a smaller $600 tariff rebate check, but that proposal failed to gain traction in Congress.
One big concern among Congressional members is that any sort of stimulus check could re-ignite inflation, which is what happened during the Biden-era stimulus program, where increased consumer spending led to product shortages and soaring prices for home improvement projects.
So who would qualify for a check?
The Tax Foundation estimates that even if rebate checks only go to people earning under $100,000 per year, the program would still cost the government $300 billion.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, meanwhile, projects the plan's cost could be up to $600 billion, more than what the tariffs are collecting.
This substantial price tag could face scrutiny from fiscal conservatives in Congress, despite the revenue coming from tariff collections.
It would all depend on the income cutoff level. For the COVID stimulus checks, the threshold was $75,000 income for individual filers and $150,000 for married couples filing jointly. After that level, the payments dropped off quickly.
Several previous attempts at tariff rebates have failed to materialize, making Trump's backing crucial for any potential success. His influence over Republican lawmakers could prove decisive this time in getting the idea through Congress.
So they could become a reality in the coming weeks, but could be less than the $2,000 level the President has proposed.
So, at this point, don't plan your shopping spree yet, so you don't waste your money.
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