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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Hawaii hurricane season forecasted to be slow with La Nina

Pacific Hurricane Forecast
Posted at 8:50 PM, May 18, 2022

Federal forecasters say Hawaii and the Central Pacific basin should expect two to four hurricanes, tropical depressions or tropical storms this year.

The annual National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outlook predicts there is about a 60% chance of a below-average season. The Central Pacific region sees about four to five tropical cyclones on average annually.

Hurricane season in Hawaii lasts from June 1 until the end of November. August and September are historically active months. Officials said below-average sea temperatures associated with La Nina east of Hawaii where storms form factored into this year's prediction. The last major hurricane to strike the state was Hurricane Iniki in 1992.

“This year we are predicting less activity in the Central Pacific region compared to normal seasons,” said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “The ongoing La Nina is likely to cause strong vertical wind shear, making it more difficult for hurricanes to develop or move into the Central Pacific Ocean.”