A new poll shows U.S. Senator Rob Portman has opened up a huge lead in his re-election bid against Democratic challenger Ted Strickland.
While Republican incumbents in other swing states are struggling, Portman has a 49 to 40 point lead over former governor Strickland, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday morning.
“There a lot of solid campaigns out there, but he sort of leads the pack nationally,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of the non-partisan The Cook Political Report. “I think Sen. Portman has a very detailed plan and timeline and they’re rolling it out exactly as they had hoped.”
With the majority of the Senate at stake, this race is being closely watched nationwide.
In polls earlier this year, Strickland and Portman were in a dead heat. But Portman began pulling ahead in polls in June, and has led Strickland in five of the last six polls.
"Sen. Rob Portman in Ohio may have a strong enough lead to escape the Trump effect," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, in a press release.
"In each of the three key swing states, the incumbent U.S. senators seeking re-election are running better than Trump," Brown said. "But if Trump continues to lag behind in the presidential race, that will make it more difficult for GOP candidates, logic holds, up and down the ballot."
The poll also focused on Pennsylvania and Florida, where both incumbent GOP senators are in races too close to call.
In the Ohio race, women are divided 44 - 44 percent, while men back Portman 55 - 36 percent. Portman has a led with white voters, 56 - 34 percent while non-white voters back Strickland 66 - 18 percent.
"The gender gap strongly favors Sen. Portman," Brown said. "While the Republican Portman and Democratic challenger Ted Strickland are evenly divided among women - an unusual outcome - Portman has a 19-point margin among men."
Not only has Portman dominated Strickland with a fundraising war chest and early-running television ads, he also has an army of volunteers.
“Portman himself has a massive incredible operation. He’s got 500 college interns working for him,” said Matt Borges, chairman of the Ohio Republican Party.
Portman also has the help of 59 Republican field staffers who have been working in the state for a year, Borges said.
Already the Portman campaign has made three million voter contacts, which Duffy said “is extraordinary for a senate campaign at this stage.”
While Portman has been running television ads since May, Strickland launched his first ad this week.
“Ted Strickland has had $35 million in special interest attack money used against him. Any other politician would not be able to recover from that,” said Ohio Democratic Party Chair David Pepper. “But Strickland has shown he can withstand that attack.”
And experts caution that Portman could see a drag from Trump heading into the fall, while Strickland may get a boost from campaign appearances with Hillary Clinton.
“Portman can’t count on Trump for anything,” Duffy said. “Strickland will get that help from Clinton.”
And Democrats will work hard to link Portman to Trump.
“Portman is going to have to run one heck of a campaign in part because of Donald Trump -- in part because he tied himself to Donald Trump,” said Hamilton County Democratic Party Chairman Tim Burke.
Pepper agreed.
“People will judge Rob Portman very differently than they ever have I think,” Pepper said. “I think Donald Trump in many ways is Rob Portman’s worst nightmare.”
