High school football projection expert Steve Shuck offers insight entering week 8

High school football projection expert Steve Shuck offers insight entering week 8
Posted at 9:00 AM, Oct 12, 2017
and last updated 2017-10-12 10:46:54-04

CINCINNATI -- With three games left in the regular season, Elder and Moeller still have opportunities at postseason football berths.

Although longtime projections analyst Steve Shuck doesn’t have the two Greater Catholic League South division teams in his final eight in Division I, Region 4, circumstances could change with a win for each this week.

Elder (4-3) plays at Winton Woods (7-0) Friday night while Moeller (3-4) plays Cleveland St. Ignatius (7-0) Friday night at Otterbein University.

Elder, projected at No. 10, lost points off their projected final number last week due to unexpected losses by defeated opponents, Lakota West (1-6) and Gahanna Lincoln (4-3), plus a change in a projected result.

The Panthers must win at either Winton Woods or at La Salle Week 10 to have a chance, Shuck said. The Panthers are favorites in an Oct. 20 game against visiting International School of Broward (Hollywood, Florida).

“If Elder can win the last three games, it can reach almost 22 points,” Shuck said. “Eight others could finish higher than that but not likely.”

Moeller, projected at No. 11, finishes the season with three undefeated opponents including St. Ignatius, at Lakewood St. Edward Oct. 21 and at Winton Woods Oct. 27.

“If they can win one they still have a chance,” Shuck said.

Another premier game to watch in Division I, Region 4 this week includes Colerain (5-2) at Fairfield (5-2) Friday night at Fairfield Stadium. This game could very well determine the Greater Miami Conference champion.

Colerain has won 64 consecutive GMC games going back to the 2008 season when it lost at Middletown the first week of October.

The Cardinals and Indians are projected to qualify at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, in the region.

If Fairfield wins Friday, it would change places with Colerain in those projections.

Shuck said projected No. 1 St. Xavier (7-0) and Colerain will qualify for the playoffs. The Bombers are ranked No. 13 nationally by MaxPreps.

In Division II, Region 8, Anderson (7-0), Winton Woods (7-0) and La Salle (5-2) are projected to remain ahead of the others.

Harrison (5-2), projected at No. 7, should be a solid favorite in its final three games and could move up a little, according to Shuck.

Edgewood (5-2) is on the fence at No. 8 and can’t afford another loss.

In Division III, Region 12, New Richmond (6-1) and Goshen (7-0) are in the running for a berth. Both have projected losses to Clinton-Massie (7-0).

The Week 10 matchup with Goshen at New Richmond could be very significant.

In Division V, Region 20, Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy (4-2) is expected to host a first-round game. Reading’s narrow win over Mariemont last week put the Blue Devils (5-2) on the fence.

Summit Country Day (6-1) could add significant computer points with a win over visiting CHCA Friday night.

Shuck’s information is independent and unofficial. It has no official connection to the Ohio High School Athletic Association computer points.

The weekly computer ratings are released every Tuesday leading up to the final report on Sunday morning, Oct. 29 when 224 schools will qualify for the playoffs.

The eight teams in each region qualify for the postseason while the top four host first-round games.

Of the 719 OHSAA member schools playing varsity football this fall, the largest 72 schools are in Division I, while the remaining schools are divided equally in Divisions II through VII (approximately 108 schools in each division.