Swing state Ohio a toss-up in final days before 2016 presidential election

Posted at 11:31 AM, Nov 06, 2016

CINCINNATI -- If you plan on watching Ohio's election results Tuesday, maybe buy some extra coffee: It could be a very late night.

A Columbus Dispatch poll out Sunday morning found the race was too close to call, with Democrat Hillary Clinton holding a slight lead over Republican Donald Trump. At 48 percent to 47 percent, it was still well inside the poll's margin of error. The Dispatch's poll is based on a sample of 1,151 registered Ohio voters who said they plan to vote in the 2016 election.

In more typically conservative southwest Ohio, support split evenly between Trump and Clinton, at 48 percent each.


The RealClearPolitics average puts Trump in the lead by more than 3 points statewide, and Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight predicts the Republican has a roughly 68 percent chance of winning the Buckeye State.

The Associated Press considers Ohio a toss-up.

Trump has no planned stops in the state between now and Tuesday. Instead, he'll be spending his campaign's final days in Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire.

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Four of those states -- Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia -- are leaning toward Clinton, according to RealClearPolitics and the Associated Press. Florida and New Hampshire are, like Ohio, essentially tied. North Carolina and Iowa have been leaning toward Trump.

Clinton, meanwhile, has just one more stop in Ohio, an appearance Sunday afternoon in Cleveland. She's instead focusing her campaign's attention on Pennsylvania and Michigan, as well as North Carolina.

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Both candidates' election night events are in New York City.


Clinton holds advantages over Trump in just enough states to win the White House -- if she can hold them on Election Day.

Her national lead appears to have narrowed in the last two weeks, and her winning map appears more fragile than it once did.

The Associated Press this week moves New Hampshire from leaning Democratic to a toss-up, Arizona and Iowa from a toss-up to leaning Republican, Virginia from strong Democratic to leaning Democratic, and Texas from leaning Republican to strong Republican.

Check out the AP's analysis of the map as it stands today. It considers preference polling, recent electoral history, demographic trends and campaign priorities such as advertising, travel and on-the-ground staff:

SOLID DEMOCRATIC: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington state (200 total electoral votes).

LEANS DEMOCRATIC: Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia (74 total electoral votes).

TOSS-UP: Florida, Maine 2nd District, Nebraska 2nd District, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah (74 total electoral votes).

LEANS REPUBLICAN: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Missouri (46 total electoral votes).

SOLID REPUBLICAN: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming (144 total electoral votes).

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