CINCINNATI -- In the gold mine of compelling NCAA Tournament first-round games, few matchups are more heavily projected as upsets than No. 11 Xavier versus No. 6 Maryland in Orlando.
Multiple basketball analysts have contended that Maryland is over-seeded and unworthy of the West Region's sixth slot due to a late-season slide and an early departure from the Big Ten Tournament. Odds-makers have listed Mark Turgeon's Terrapins as an early two-point favorite.
The truth is, Xavier and Maryland have a lot in common.
Let's start with their slides.
Xavier (21-13) dropped six straight games over the course of three weeks late in its Big East season, while Maryland (24-8) lost six of its final 10 games, including a 72-64 conference tourney defeat by Northwestern.
The Musketeers rallied from their skid and won three of their next four games (albeit two against league-last DePaul). Maryland went 2-2 in its last four games and coughed up 25 points off turnovers in the ouster by Northwestern.
The Big East ranks higher than the Big Ten in Conference RPI per RealTimeRPI.com. Aside from a better record overall, what makes Maryland five seeds higher than Xavier?
"I think what it is, is we were 8-2 on the road," Turgeon said in post-Selection Show comments, regarding the six-seed. "It's the hardest thing to do in college basketball, is win on the road, and we were rewarded for it."
Maryland's best road wins were at Minnesota (No. 20 in the NCAA RPI) and at Michigan (25). Xavier, on the other hand, defeated Butler (15) in the Big East Tournament and Creighton (26) in Omaha -- both games without Edmond Sumner.
The Musketeers are battle-tested, whether it's by virtue of their stingy non-conference schedule or their residence in the unforgiving Big East. As Xavier played games at Baylor and Colorado in December, the Terps cut their teeth on Howard and Saint Peter's.
So let's dive a little deeper into Maryland, a team propelled by 6-foot-3 junior guard Melo Trimble (17 ppg, 3.7 apg).
Trimble is the engine that makes the Terps go. Not only can he shoot outside, but he's a physical player capable of wielding his body in such a way that he often draws fouls and reaches the free-throw line.
Melo Trimble of the Maryland Terrapins puts up a shot in front of Xavier Lundy of the Rider Broncs during the first half at Xfinity Center on November 20, 2015 in College Park, Maryland.
How well Trimble shoots from three is a good predictor of any Terps outing. He's the team's highest-volume 3-point shooter, although not the most accurate, and he has struggled from long range in games Maryland has lost. Trimble shot 32.8 percent from 3-point range in all games preceding the Big Dance, but was held to 23.4 percent in the team's eight losses.
That's where Xavier's defense could make a major impact. By harassing Trimble and making his shots difficult, the Musketeers could neutralize the biggest threat against them.
Trimble is surrounded by freshmen guards Anthony Cowan and Kevin Huerter, two players recruited by Xavier, as well as freshman forward Justin Jackson. Huerter and Cowan also are capable long-range shooters.
Ditto for Jackson, a 6-foot-7 stretch-four who can create mismatches while opening the offense for his team -- just like Trevon Bluiett, although Xavier's scoring leader (17.6 ppg) is by far a better playmaker.
Game-changing turnovers are another stat the teams have in common. The Terps average 13 miscues a game to Xavier's 12.6. Both teams have negative turnover margins and have been undone by opponents' points off turnovers.
So where does Xavier have the edge?
On the glass, where it's more dominant. The Musketeers' rebounding margin ranks 20th in the NCAA at plus-6.6.
Maryland has clipped opponents on the boards by a margin of plus-0.7. The Terps lost a rebounding option when 7-foot-1 center Michal Cekovsky fractured his left ankle in February. That left 6-11 center Damonte Dodd (6.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2 bpg) to anchor the frontcourt.
Final prediction: Xavier, 76-70.
If the Musketeers can protect the ball and prevent scoring droughts from affecting their defense, then they're equipped to advance to a second-round game against No. 3-seed Florida State or No. 14-seed Florida Gulf Coast. Senior transfers Malcolm Bernard and RaShid Gaston are eager for their NCAA Tournament debuts and can heavily influence Xavier's return to the Big Dance.
