Top scientists from a variety of fields say they are about as certain that global warming is a real, man-made threat as they are that cigarettes kill. Getty Images
Hide Caption

Leaked global warming report sees violent, sicker, poorer future

a a a a
Share this story

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Starvation, poverty, flooding, heat waves, droughts, war and disease already lead to human tragedies. They're likely to worsen as the world warms from man-made climate change, a leaked draft of an international scientific report forecasts.

The Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will issue a report next March on how global warming is already affecting the way people live and what will happen in the future, including a worldwide drop in income. A leaked copy of a draft of the summary of the report appeared online Friday on a climate skeptic's website. Governments will spend the next few months making comments about the draft.

"We've seen a lot of impacts and they've had consequences," Carnegie Institution climate scientist Chris Field, who heads the report, told The Associated Press on Saturday. "And we will see more in the future."

Cities, where most of the world now lives, have the highest vulnerability, as do the globe's poorest people.

"Throughout the 21st century, climate change impacts will slow down economic growth and poverty reduction, further erode food security and trigger new poverty traps, the latter particularly in urban areas and emerging hotspots of hunger," the report says. "Climate change will exacerbate poverty in low- and lower-middle income countries and create new poverty pockets in upper-middle to high-income countries with increasing inequality."

For people living in poverty, the report says, "climate-related hazards constitute an additional burden."

The report says scientists have high confidence especially in what it calls certain "key risks":

-People dying from warming- and sea rise-related flooding, especially in big cities.

-Famine because of temperature and rain changes, especially for poorer nations.

-Farmers going broke because of lack of water.

-Infrastructure failures because of extreme weather.

-Dangerous and deadly heat waves worsening.

-Certain land and marine ecosystems failing.

"Human interface with the climate system is occurring and climate change poses risks for human and natural systems," the 29-page summary says.

None of the harms talked about in the report is solely due to global warming nor is climate change even the No. 1 cause, the scientists say. But a warmer world, with bursts of heavy rain and prolonged drought, will worsen some of these existing effects, they say.

For example, in disease, the report says until about 2050 "climate change will impact human health mainly by exacerbating health problems that already exist" and then it will lead to worse health compared to a future with no futher warming.

If emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of coal, oil and gas continue at current trajectories, "the combination of high temperature and humidity in some areas for parts of the year will compromise normal human activities including growing food or working outdoors," the report says.

Scientists say the global economy may continue to grow, but once the global temperature hits about 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than now, it could lead to worldwide economic losses between 0.2 and 2.0 percent of income.

One of the more controversial sections of the report involves climate change and war.

"Climate change indirectly increases risks from violent conflict in the form of civil war, inter-group violence and violent protests by exacerbating well-established drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks," the report says.

Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann, who wasn't part of the international study team, told the AP that the report's summary confirms what researchers have known for a long time: "Climate change threatens our health, land, food and water security."

The summary went through each continent detailing risks and possible ways that countries can adapt to them.

For North America, the highest risks over the long term are from wildfires, heat waves and flooding. Water - too much and too little - and heat are the biggest risks for Europe, South America and Asia, with South America and Asia having to deal with drought-related food shortages. Africa gets those risks and more: starvation, pests and disease. Australia and New Zealand get the unique risk of losing their coral reef ecosystems, and small island nations have to be worried about being inundated by rising seas.

Field said experts paint a dramatic contrast of possible futures, but because countries can lessen some of the harms through reduced fossil fuel emissions and systems to cope with other changes, he said he doesn't find working on the report depressing.

"The reason I'm not depressed is because I see the difference between a world in which we don't do anything and a world in which we try hard to get our arms around the problem," he said.

---

Online:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: HTTP://WWW.IPCC.CH/

---

Seth Borenstein be followed at HTTP://TWITTER.COM/BORENBEARS

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Print this article

Comments

Hmm... It looks like you’re not a WCPO Insider. or Subscribe now to contribute!

More Science News
Hacker attack? NKU Cyber Defense Team can help
Hacker attack? NKU Cyber Defense Team can help

The students bested teams from nine states--including the University of Louisville--in a recent competition. Organizers described the cyber…

Study: Snack might help avoid fight with spouse
Study: Snack might help avoid fight with spouse

A quick candy bar may stave off more than hunger. It could prevent major fights between husbands and wives, at least if a new study that used…

'Blood moon' a treat for skywatchers
'Blood moon' a treat for skywatchers

A special treat occurred for most of North America Monday night into Tuesday when the moon turned to blood – well, sort of.

Cost of fighting warming 'modest,' says UN panel
Cost of fighting warming 'modest,' says UN panel

The cost of keeping global warming in check is "relatively modest," but only if the world acts quickly to reverse the buildup of…

Spring find you in love? Blame it on oxytocin
Spring find you in love? Blame it on oxytocin

Is there something to the notion that more people actually fall in love in the springtime? Mark Bardgett, the director of the…

Celestial event to bathe Tri-State in 'blood'
Celestial event to bathe Tri-State in 'blood'

A special treat is in store for the Tri-State next week when the moon turns to blood – well, sort of.

Electrical device helps paralyzed men move legs
Electrical device helps paralyzed men move legs

Three years ago, doctors reported that zapping a paralyzed man's spinal cord with electricity allowed him to stand and move his legs. Now…

UK scientists make body parts in lab
UK scientists make body parts in lab

In a north London hospital, scientists are growing noses, ears and blood vessels in the laboratory in a bold attempt to make body parts using…

Odds are dopamine has us hooked on sports bets
Odds are dopamine has us hooked on sports bets

Depending on how your bracket looks--and how much money is on the line--March Madness is either the best or worst of times for sports fans…

Why Reds Opening Day makes hearts & brains happy
Why Reds Opening Day makes hearts & brains happy

Turns out there are scientific reasons our hearts beat faster and we're all smiles for the start for baseball season in Cincinnati.