WASHINGTON - It would seem a lobbyist's dream: rounding up votes for a proposal backed by more than 8 in 10 people in polls. Yet, gun control supporters are struggling to win over moderate Democrats in their drive to push expanded background checks for firearms purchasers through the Senate next month.
Backed by a $12 million TV advertising campaign financed by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, gun control groups scheduled rallies around the country Thursday aimed at pressuring senators to back the effort. President Barack Obama was meeting at the White House with gun violence victims.
Moderate Senate Democrats like Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota are shunning Bloomberg as a meddling outsider while stressing their allegiance to their own voters' views and to gun rights. While saying they're keeping an open mind and support keeping guns from criminals and people with mental disorders, many Democrats are avoiding specific commitments they might regret later.
"I do not need someone from New York City to tell me how to handle crime in our state. I know that we can go after and prosecute criminals without the need to infringe upon the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding North Dakotans," Heitkamp said this week, citing the constitutional right to bear arms.
Heitkamp does not face re-election next year, but Pryor and five other Senate Democrats from Republican-leaning or closely divided states do. All six, from Southern and Western states, will face voters whose deep attachment to guns is unshakeable - not to mention opposition from the still potent National Rifle Association should they vote for restrictions the NRA opposes.
"We have a politically savvy and a loyal voting bloc, and the politicians know that," said Andrew Arulanandam, spokesman for the NRA, which claims nearly 5 million paying members.
The heart of the Senate gun bill will be expanded requirements for federal background checks for gun buyers, the remaining primary proposal pushed by Obama and many Democrats since 20 first-graders and six women were shot to death in December at an elementary school in Newtown, Conn. Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada already has given up any hope of winning majority support for reimposing a ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines for ammunition.
Today, the background checks apply only to sales by the nation's roughly 55,000 federally licensed gun dealers. Not covered are private transactions like those at gun shows and online. The Senate measure is still evolving as Sens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Mark Kirk, R-Ill., use Congress' two-week recess to negotiate for additional support in both parties.
Expanding background checks to include gun show sales got 84 percent support in an Associated Press-GfK poll earlier this year. Near universal background checks have received similar or stronger support in other national polls.
Polls in some Southern states have been comparable. March surveys by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute found more than 9 in 10 people in Florida and Virginia backing expanded background checks, the same margin found by an Elon University Poll in North Carolina in February.
Analysts say people support more background checks because they consider it an extension of the existing system. That doesn't translate to unvarnished support from lawmakers, in part because the small but vocal minorities who oppose broader background checks and other gun restrictions tend to be driven voters that politicians are reluctant to alienate.
"It's probably true that intense, single-issue gun voters have been more likely to turn out than folks who want common-sense gun laws," said Mark Glaze, director of Mayors Against Illegal Guns, the group that Bloomberg helps lead. Glaze, however, said he believes that has changed somewhat since Newtown and other recent mass shootings.
Several moderate Democrats are holding back as they assess the political landscape. They're also waiting to see exactly what the Senate will consider.
Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, said Wednesday his state's voters tell him, "Don't take away our rights, our individual rights, our guns." Begich said he opposes a strict proposal requiring background checks for nearly all gun sales but will wait to see whether there is a bipartisan compromise he can support.
The problems faced by gun control supporters go beyond the challenge of winning moderate Democrats. GOP opponents are sure to force Democrats to get 60 of the Senate's 100 votes to win, and there are only 53 Democrats plus two independents who generally support them.
Also targeted by Bloomberg's ads are 10 Republicans, including Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, home of ex-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who was severely wounded in a mass shooting; the retiring Saxby Chambliss of Georgia; and moderate Susan Collins of Maine.
In another indicator of hurdles facing gun control forces, the Senate voted 50-49 last week to require 60 votes for any legislation
narrowing gun rights. The proposal lost because 60 votes in favor were required, but six Democrats voted for the proposal, offered by conservative Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah.
"It confirms there's no such thing as an easy gun vote," said Jim Kessler, a senior vice president of the centrist Democratic group Third Way.
Underscoring the uncertainty about moderate Democrats:
-Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., is "still holding conversations with Virginia stakeholders and sorting through issues on background checks" and proposals to ban assault weapons and high capacity ammunition magazines, spokesman Kevin Hal said.
-Pryor said of Bloomberg's ads: "I don't take gun advice from the mayor of New York City. I listen to Arkansans." Spokesman Michael Teague said Pryor opposes universal background checks but could favor expanding the requirement to gun show sales.
-Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., told the Greensboro News & Record she favors expanded background checks, but said her vote would depend on the measure's details. Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., answered, "Yes," when the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette asked whether he supports gun show background checks.
The gun bill also increases penalties for illegal gun sales and slightly boosts aid for school safety.
More abrupt changes like an assault weapons ban generally get slight majorities in polls. Democratic leaders decided to omit it from the Senate bill because such a provision lacks enough votes.