What's in store for us? Winter 2010-11 forecast

CINCINNATI - The reports are in and it is time to take a look at what's in store for us during the winter of 2010-11.

The grim predictions by the Farmer's Almanac and woolly worms for the winter 2009-10 were correct for the Tri-State. We saw an above average snowfall and one of our colder winters on record.

This year the Farmer's Almanac says "Ol' Man winter will exhibit a split personality." Unfortunately for us, that doesn't mean we will see the nice side.

From New England to Florida and back into the Ohio Valley, get ready for colder than normal temperatures. The precipitation outlook places us in average wintry precipitation, but the line for cold and very snowy is along the border of our northwestern counties in Indiana.

But, the Winter Outlook from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has a different outcome perspective than the Farmer's Almanac.

Their long range forecast is based on the current moderate to strong La Niña in the Equatorial Pacific.  It is expected to peak over the next several months. 

“La Niña is in place and will strengthen and persist through the winter months, giving us a better understanding of what to expect between December and February,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center.

As La Niña increases in strength, NOAA feels it will lead to "Another Winter of Extremes".  But what does that mean for us?

Warmer than normal weather is expected from the south central U.S. into the Ohio Valley.  Keep in mind that during January normal temperatures range in the 30s for highs and lower 20s for lows.

Perhaps the best possible outcome from La Niña comes with the precipitation forecast.  Severe drought conditions continue to worsen each day.  Rainfall deficits in the Tri-State are now over 8.00" below our normal yearly average. 

During NOAA's conference call for the media regarding the release of their 2010-11 winter outlook, I was able to ask specifically how La Nina would impact the southern Ohio Valley.   

Halpert said that La Nina will help ease our current drought due to the location of the jet stream across the Ohio Valley. 

This means we will see an active weather pattern this winter as numerous storms are expected to track through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Flooding will be a concern for the Tennessee Valley. 

The precipitation in the southern Ohio Valley will depend on the exact track of each storm.  A more northerly track would indicate a higher chance of rain, while a more southerly track would indicate a higher chance of snow and winter precipitation.  

Warmer and drier weather is expected across the south while the Pacific Northwest will be colder and wetter than average.