Severe weather risks: They come in 3 sizes

Every once in awhile, I mention the terminology given to the risk level of severe weather. The National Weather Service is a government agency. Therefore, words are massaged, water-down, or even problematic. Unfortunately, the risks levels are a good example of this very concept. We are under a SLIGHT RISK today and most would assume there's a very small chance of severe weather. Well, that's not really the case. Here are the exact definitions that should clarify the risk levels:

A SLIGHT RISK implies that well-organized severe thunderstorms are expected but in relatively small numbers/coverage, or a small chance of a more significant severe event. Not all severe storm events will be covered with a slight risk, especially during the summer when short-lived, "pulse-type" severe storms are relatively common during the afternoon.

A MODERATE RISK implies a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms, and in most situations, greater magnitude of severe weather and greater forecaster confidence compared to a SLGT risk. A MDT risk is usually reserved for days with substantial severe storm coverage, or an enhanced chance for a significant severe storm outbreak. Typical moderate risk days include multiple tornadic supercells with very large hail, or intense squall lines with widespread damaging winds.

A HIGH RISK implies that a major severe weather outbreak is expected, with large coverage of severe weather and the likelihood of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events). The high risk category is reserved for the most extreme events with the least forecast uncertainty, and is only used a few times each year.

Therefore, in real terms, here's how I would describe the severe weather chances. With a Slight Risk, I would say a chance to see at least one or two individual severe storms. We see this outlook several times a year and should give you pause for thought about severe weather. However, a moderate risk definitely means seeing, at least, a few individual severe storms with a chance for a more broad band series severe storms with a chance for tornadoes. We only see this outlook a handful of times a year. Finally, a High Risk outlook is rare for us. Yet, we would likely see tornadoes forming during this type of day. In fact, the High Risk outlook was out during the March 2nd tornadoes.

Hopefully, this gives you a better understanding of your risk during severe weather.