CINCINNATI - Cincinnati's leaders have a huge to-do list on their hands for the foreseeable future.
That's because the U.S. Census Bureau says Cincinnati's population fell 10 percent from 2000 to 2010.
If that number stands, it will pose political and financial challenges for the city.
However, it also presents opportunities for the community to work on reforms city leaders claim are already bringing in more young professionals and creating a more vibrant, exciting place to live, work and play.
"Very disappointed," said Donna Jones Baker, President/CEO of the Urban League of Greater Cincinnati, an organization that helped with the Census count. "We worked very hard with the intent of having an increase in the population."
Mayor Mark Mallory said the accuracy of the count may be challenged. Three former appeals have been successful.
"We've seen in the past that the numbers aren't always correct," the Mayor said. "This could be another situation where they haven't gotten the numbers right."
Reasons for people leaving the city may include the school system, jobs, housing, foreclosures, the recession, crime and quality-of-life issues.
Lisa Ackels is among those who have moved, even though she has a long-standing affection for Cincinnati.
Ackels, who is white, grew up in Oakley, was married at St. Cecilia Church and the family remodeled and lived in a house in Mount Lookout.
However, when it came time for her children to start school, the Ackels' built a house in Mason and left the city. She now lives in West Chester.
"I love Cincinnati. I want it to do well," she said. "It makes me sad that people are moving out in droves, but it's not a place I'd consider moving back to."
John and Vicki Grooms called Cincinnati's Liberty Hill home when they were starting their life together. Vicki grew up in the city. John, a New York native, grew to love it.
Once they began a family, the African-American couple searched for a new place to live and finally settled on Newport.
"I have access to the city. I have all the amenities of a grocery store and a mall," Vicki said. "Just a lot more features and benefits to living on this side."
John said, "I never felt like Cincinnati was under-delivering versus some of the basic city benefits that it offers. I just felt this was a better opportunity overall for us as a young family with two small children."
They're among the former Cincinnatians -- still in the region, but not within the city limits. It's a trend that dates back 60 years. Cincinnati's population was more than a half-million people in 1950. Now, the Census Bureau puts the number at 297,000.
CINCINNATI CITY POPULATION
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- 1950 - 503,998
- 1960 - 502,550
- 1970 - 452,524
- 1980 - 385,457
- 1990 - 346,040
- 2000 - 331,285
- 2010 - 297,000
CINCINNATI CITY POPULATION
------------------------------------------------
2000 2009
TOTAL 331,285 332,572
MALE 156,357 158,131
FEMALE 174,928 258,813
WHITE 175,492 178,291
BLACK 142,176 139,293
ASIAN 4,230 7,168
HISPANIC 5,132 5,059
TWO/MORE 5,553 7,192
Census data shows Hamilton County lost five percent of its population, while surrounding Ohio counties gained residents.
GREATER CINCINNATI POPULATION 2000 - 2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
OHIO
CINCINNATI - Lost 10%
HAMILTON COUTY - Lost 5%
BUTLER COUNTY - Gained 10%
CLERMONT COUNTY - Gained 10%
WARREN COUNTY - Gained 34%
George Vredeveld heads the University of Cincinnati Economic Center and agreed that the numbers are disappointing.
"For one thing, I think it's symptomatic," he said. "It tells us something about the desirability of Cincinnati and Hamilton County as a place to live."
Vredeveld added the figures could be harmful as well.
"Competition for economic development is going to depend on the quality and quantity of the work force," he said. "If you see population leave, you're also seeing work force leave."
Jones Baker said the data means the city won't get as much federal grant money to provide services for residents. That may leave her agency and others like it with tough choices for funding basic services.
"We're talking food, clothing and shelter," she said. "Do we feed fewer citizens or clothe fewer citizens or house fewer citizens or do something else? What is it we're going to have to do?"
CINCINNATIANS LIVING BELOW POVERTY LEVEL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2009 CHANGE
FAMILIES
18.2% 20.5% + 2.3%
INDIVIDUALS 21.9% 25.3% + 3.4%
HAMILTON COUNTY JOB & FAMILY SERVICES
ASSISTANCE PROVIDED
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2002 2011 CHANGE
MEDICARE 101,639 153,258 + 51.519
FOOD STAMPS 52,424 139,068 + 86,644
OHIO WORKS 19,828 24,566 + 4,638
CHILD CARE 13,175 15,451 + 3,175
Ackels made her move to Mason mainly for the schools. The family's neighborhood school was Kilgour Elementary in the Cincinnati Public Schools District. She said she was comfortable with Kilgour, but not the district's test scores and enrollment policies at the time.
"I left to have more opportunities that they have in the schools in the suburbs," she said. "We had less taxes to pay for more services."
Both of her children graduated from Mason High School.
Cincinnati Public Schools Treasurer Jonathan Boyd said the district has made considerable progress in the past 10 years, but changing public opinion of the district is difficult.
"Perceptions are hard to change," he said.
Boyd said enrollment is down, but test scores and graduation rates are up. He added the achievement gap between white and African-American students has been narrowed.
CINCINNATI PUBLIC SCHOOLS
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2000 2010
ENVOLLMENT 42,000 33,000
GRADUATION RATE 51% 83%
2003 2009
ACHIEVEMENT GAP
BETWEEN WHITE & 14.6% 4.3%
AFRICAN-AMERICAN
STUDENTS
Cincinnati Public Schools are now rated "Effective" on the Ohio State Report Card. Boyd said that is a major improvement from the beginning of the century.
CINCINNATI PUBLIC SCHOOLS
DISTRICT REPORT CARD
-------------------------------------------------
1999-2000 -- Academic Emergency
2000-2001 -- Academic Emergency
2001-2002 -- Academic Emergency
2002-2003 -- Academic Emergency
2003-2004 -- Academic Watch
2004-2005 -- Continuous Improvement
2005-2006 -- Continuous Improvement
2006-2007 -- Continuous Improvement
2007-2008 -- Continuous Improvement
2008-2009 -- Continuous Improvement
2009-2010 -- Effective
Boyd attributes the loss of students to the economy, jobs and housing -- not the quality of education.
"We saw that between October and December, when we lost I believe a little over 200 students, that many of them left the area," he said. "We're accustomed to students moving from building to building within our district and even to the suburbs, and we track those, but these students have left the area."
The district has realigned resources, closed buildings and reduced staff to compensate for the lost enrollment. Cincinnati Public Schools are now performing better than other Ohio urban districts.
"We're being recognized by the state and nationally for our achievements," Boyd said. "Other districts are coming to see what we're doing."
However, significant work remains, especially when Boyd said the district could get $30 million less in state funding in Governor John Kasich's new budget. That's on top of a $20 million deficit the district is working to erase.
"Obviously, we have to be a district that people want to come to," he said. "We have to move all of our buildings out of instruction challenge to achievement and we're working on that quickly."
Education wasn't the top reason for the Grooms family to move.
John and Vicki said they're urban people who wanted to be close to the center of Cincinnati.
"When we were considering housing, we were serious about looking in Mount Adams, but the value per square foot for the dollar was a little better here in Newport than there," John said.
Their house has a spectacular view of the Cincinnati skyline and John can walk to work at Procter & Gamble. Vicki said she can find all her daily needs within minutes of the house.
"We have a grocery store. We have a Target. We have a lot of the suburban type of things that Cincinnati on the city side doesn't offer," she said.
Those comments lay out the challenges. The test comes in how Cincinnati's leaders respond.
"We're going to continue to do what we've been doing, which is changing the image of the City of Cincinnati, investing in projects that people want to see and developing The Banks project between our stadiums," Mayor Mallory said. "Projects like the streetcar keep young people here and make young people want to come to the City of Cincinnati. Revitalize our neighborhoods and make sure that Cincinnati is a great place to live."
The Mayor said the number of young professionals coming to and staying in the city is up. He added Over-the-Rhine is being revitalized and downtown is becoming a hot spot for night life.
Vredeveld pointed to The Banks and Horseshoe Casino as having great potential.
"The Banks project is pretty exciting," he said. "I think
it's going to draw people downtown. They've got a lot of apartments available and this is going to be helpful."
He added the casino may not affect population, but will increase economic activity."
For Jones Baker, the key to growing the city's population is jobs.
"Jobs mean everything," she said. "We've got to convince employers, large employers, that the city is a good place to live, work and play."
If anyone would ask John Grooms what the key to the future is, he would agree that it's jobs.
"I think if we kind of refurbish Cincinnati so that it still has somewhat of a night life that has that main attraction to younger folks, I think that would be a big draw as well," John added.
Vicki's top priority would be a grocery store downtown.
"Right now, I don't think they've done a good job of it at trying to develop that aspect," she said.
She added she hopes downtown development continues with an eye toward providing things for singles to do.
"That means creating more opportunities for young people wanting to interact with others downtown -- the night life, more restaurants," she said. "Just keep people interested in wanting to be in the city."
Would the Grooms ever move back to Cincinnati?
"Really, I consider Newport an extension of Cincinnati," John said. "I feel like I'm a Cincinnatian with a better view of downtown Cincinnati."
Ackels' advice to Cincinnati leaders is simple and to the point.
"Take care of the schools. Take care of the businesses that are in the city. Try to do whatever we can do to get them to stay," she said. "I think downtown is starting to look good. I just hope it looks great enough that it will draw people down there."
However, she won't be leaving West Chester.
"I very seldom go down into Cincinnati anymore unless I'm going to Clifton for a football game or basketball game," she said. "There's not much down there that I can't get up here."
She pointed to the influx of businesses along Tylersville Road and Union Centre Boulevard.
Experts say when all the census information is in, Greater Cincinnati will be the 24th largest metropolitan area in the country with 2.1 or 2.2 million people. That's good news for the region, but Jones Baker said the improvement of Cincinnati is key for survival of both urban and suburban communities.
"If we don't have good, strong cities where there is a healthy population and thriving business and industry and places to live, work and play, then we're not going to have strong suburban areas either," she said.
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