Expert: Killings hard to predict

CINCINNATI - Half of the debate over how to prevent future Sandy Hook tragedies seems to focus on mental illness.

There is a strong view that building the right profile of school shooters will allow law enforcement to prevent future tragedies. But that seems far from certain: the FBI in a report on school shootings concludes no one factor is decisive.

Adam Lanza's face joins a long, sorry list of those who killed others at America's schools, then killed themselves.
While their crimes bear some grim similarities, those of us left to wonder what set them off remain at a loss.

We learn of Lanza's social awkwardness and wonder if being a loner equals being a killer; or if being the victim of bullies will unleash another Virginia Tech massacre.

Dr. Ken Manges, a forensic psychologist says it's not that simple.

"We may all have that sense of shyness, may have that sense of  aloneness, may or may not have Asperger's, may or may not have parents that have weapons. That doesn't mean that they're Adams," he said.

Dr. Manges says we may never know whether Lanza's crime was rooted in some mental defect, or a biological one. "He had a disturbed mentality that resulted in him feeling threatened. And he had an opportunity with a weapon. And he had an impulse control problem and he had some stimulus that went off. We don't know what that was."

The question most of us are asking in the aftermath of Lanza's horrendous crime is when should we be concerned that someone we know might be planning something dangerous.

Dr. Manges says we should listen. Closely.

"And the greater the likelihood of those individuals specifying a particular time, person, location, that's when you know that they have formulated a plan."

Dr. Manges says that's when you should report the person, their behavior and their remarks to the authorities.

You may feel disloyal  or like a snitch, but you may also save lives.